Trump Pressures Allies to Secure Strait of Hormuz as Oil Tops $106 — But No One Is Committing Warships
Brent crude surged past $106 as Trump's call for a multinational naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz meets muted resistance — Japan and Australia declined, the UK is hesitant, and Iran has reduced daily ship transits from 138 to just 5.
Introduction
Oil prices are continuing their relentless climb as the global market sees no end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged as much as 3 percent on Sunday to top $106 a barrel — the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis — before easing slightly to $104.63 early Monday. The spike comes as President Trump’s call for a multinational naval coalition to reopen the critical waterway meets widespread reluctance from the very allies he needs.
The Coalition Nobody Wants
Trump’s proposal — a multinational naval force to escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — has received a decidedly muted response. None of the countries he appealed to by name, including China, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom, have publicly committed to deploying their navies.
The rejections have been swift:
- Japan: Said Monday it has no plans to send ships to the waterway
- Australia: Also declined, citing no plans for naval deployment
- United Kingdom: Resisting, with officials privately expressing concerns about the lack of a diplomatic framework
- China: Has remained conspicuously silent, benefiting from Iran’s yuan-for-oil arrangement
In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump turned to threats: NATO would face a “very bad” future if his proposal received “no response, or if it’s a negative response.”
By the Numbers
The scale of the disruption is historic:
- Daily ship transits: Down from 138 (historical average) to fewer than 5
- Brent crude: $104.63/barrel — up 40% since the war began on February 28
- Vessels attacked: At least 16 commercial ships hit since hostilities started
- IEA assessment: Largest disruption to global energy supplies in history
- War cost (US): $12 billion so far, according to a top Trump adviser
Iran’s Control
Iran has brought shipping in the strait to a near-total standstill in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, fewer than five ships have passed through each day since the war began — effectively a blockade without a formal declaration.
The strait, bordered by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, is the only maritime passage into the Persian Gulf. At its narrowest point, it is just 21 nautical miles (39 km) wide, making it extraordinarily vulnerable to disruption.
Trump’s Dilemma
Trump has repeatedly said he is willing to deploy the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait. However, administration officials have acknowledged that warships will not be sent until Tehran’s military capacity has been “further degraded” — a condition that may never be fully met.
The president faces a strategic paradox:
- He needs allies to reopen the strait — the US Navy alone cannot secure the waterway while simultaneously conducting offensive operations against Iran
- Allies won’t commit without a diplomatic framework and clear exit strategy
- Iran won’t negotiate while under active bombardment
- Oil keeps rising as the standoff continues, increasing domestic political pressure
Global Economic Fallout
The 40% surge in oil prices since February 28 is rippling through the global economy:
- Fuel prices are rising worldwide, hitting consumers and transport sectors
- Inflation fears are mounting as energy costs feed into broader price increases
- Central banks face a dilemma — rising oil prices complicate rate-cut plans
- Recession risk is growing for energy-importing economies in Europe and Asia
The IEA has authorized a historic 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release, but analysts say it can only provide temporary relief — not a structural solution to the Hormuz blockade.