Majority Consensus Emerges on Iran's Next Supreme Leader as Assembly of Experts Navigates Wartime Succession

Introduction

Iran’s Assembly of Experts has reached a “majority consensus” on selecting the next supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the US-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026. However, wartime complications and procedural disagreements have delayed the formal announcement, according to multiple reports from Iranian and international media.

The development marks a critical juncture for the Islamic Republic as it navigates its first leadership transition under foreign military attack, with the country facing intense bombing campaigns and regional retaliation that have killed more than 1,000 people.

The Assembly’s Deliberations

Majority Consensus Reached

According to the Tehran-based Mehr News Agency, Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Mohammadmehdi Mirbaqeri announced on Sunday, March 8, that a majority consensus has been reached regarding Khamenei’s successor.

“A majority consensus over Khamenei’s successor has been reached,” Mirbaqeri stated, though he added that “some obstacles regarding the process need to be resolved.”

The Reuters news agency confirmed the report, noting that the consensus has been “more or less” reached, indicating near-unanimous agreement among the 88-member body constitutionally empowered to select the supreme leader.

Wartime Obstacles

A leadership council official, speaking to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, explained the delay in announcing the new leader:

“Praise be to God, we have come closer, but the situation is one of war.”

The official contrasted the current crisis with the transition following Ayatollah Khomeini’s death in 1989:

“The immediate appointment seen then was possible because the environment was not a ‘war situation.’”

The Assembly of Experts is “striving” to complete the process despite ongoing hostilities, the official emphasized.

Procedural Dispute

Iranian media reported that the body had a “minor disagreement” over procedural requirements:

In-person meeting requirement: Some members insist the final decision must follow a formal in-person meeting of the full Assembly
Virtual decision option: Others argue the decision can be issued without adhering to this formality, given security concerns

The disagreement reflects genuine security fears: Israel has already targeted buildings in Qom that were scheduled to host leadership meetings, though the building was empty at the time of the attack.

Who Are the Candidates?

Mojtaba Khamenei: The Leading Choice

According to The New York Times, three Iranian officials familiar with the discussions confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, has been presented as the “leading choice.”

Background:

56 years old, born in 1969
Influential figure within his father’s office despite no formal government position
Coordinated between Supreme Leader’s office and Revolutionary Guard
Present during the 2009 protest period crackdown
Survived the February 28 attack that killed his father

Controversy:

Iran’s system is officially non-hereditary
Appointment would face criticism for establishing dynastic rule
Trump has called him an “unlikely” and “unacceptable” choice
Israeli Defense Minister has warned any successor would be a “target for assassination”

Hassan Rouhani: The Pragmatist

Former President Hassan Rouhani’s name has resurfaced as a potential consensus candidate, according to Al Jazeera.

Background:

President of Iran from 2013 to 2021
PhD in law from Glasgow Caledonian University
Former nuclear negotiator with the West
Brokered the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal
Currently a member of the Assembly of Experts
Barred from running for the Assembly again in January 2024 by the Guardian Council

Appeal:

Represents pragmatism and moderation
Could help calm domestic tensions
Might improve international standing
Known as a “consensus man” within the system

Challenges:

Weakened by Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018
Associated with failed diplomatic opening
Conservative opposition to his “reformist” approach

Sadeq Amoli Larijani: The Institutional Figure

Another prominent contender is Sadeq Amoli Larijani, who brings significant constitutional experience.

Background:

Former head of Iran’s judiciary (2009-2019)
Current chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council
Brother of former parliament speaker Ali Larijani
Deep connections within the state apparatus

Appeal:

Strong conservative credentials
Institutional experience and legitimacy
Could build consensus across factions
Less controversial than Mojtaba Khamenei

Other Contenders

Additional names under consideration include:

Mohammad Reza Hosseini Bushehri:

Member of the Assembly of Experts
Roles within religious seminary in Qom
Traditional conservative credentials

Hassan Khomeini:

Grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Khomeini
Symbolic importance to regime legitimacy
Less prominent political presence

Ahmad Arafi:

Member of the current three-person leadership council
Religious and jurisprudential credentials
Institutional acceptability

Ali Khomeini:

Another grandson of the founder
Less prominent than Hassan

The Three-Member Leadership Council

Interim Governance

Until the Assembly of Experts announces its final decision, a three-member leadership council is running the country:

President Masoud Pezeshkian - Elected head of government
Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei - Judicial authority
Guardian Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi - Religious legitimacy

The interim arrangement follows constitutional provisions for leadership vacancies.

Constitutional Framework

Under Iran’s constitution:

The Assembly of Experts has the power to appoint or dismiss the supreme leader
The body must choose a new leader “at the earliest possible opportunity”
The selection must come from among the Assembly’s members or qualified clerics
The constitution does not specify a deadline

Alternative: Collective Leadership Council

Historical Precedent

The idea of a leadership council rather than a single supreme leader has been discussed before. In 1989, following Ayatollah Khomeini’s death, a collective council of jurists was considered before the decision was made to appoint Khamenei as a single leader.

Current Considerations

Some observers believe Mojtaba Khamenei may not secure full consensus, which could prompt a search for alternative arrangements:

Collective council of jurists could serve as transitional leadership
Could be a compromise solution if quick decision on single leader proves impossible
Would require complex political and constitutional agreement

Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantages:

Could balance competing power centers
Might be harder for Israel to target than a single leader
Could provide broader representation

Disadvantages:

Constitutional questions about collective leadership
Potential for internal disagreements and paralysis
Less clear chain of command

International Reactions

United States Position

President Donald Trump has made clear he wants a role in choosing Iran’s next leader:

“We’re going to have to choose that person along with Iran. We’re going to have to choose that person.”

Trump has specifically:

Called Mojtaba Khamenei an “unlikely” and “unacceptable” choice
Mentioned exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as potentially “in the mix”
Said “everybody’s in the mix” when asked about potential candidates
Drawn parallels to the Venezuela model where US forces removed President Maduro

Israeli Position

Israel has taken an even more aggressive stance:

Israeli Defense Minister has warned any successor to Khamenei would be a “target for assassination”
Israel has targeted buildings scheduled to host leadership meetings
Israel claims the right to strike any Iranian leadership figures

Iranian Response

Iran’s government has rejected foreign interference in the succession process.

The Iranian Consulate General in Mumbai stated:

“Reports circulating on media regarding potential candidates for leadership selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts have no official source and are officially denied.”

This statement came in response to Israeli media claims that Mojtaba Khamenei had already been chosen.

The Funeral and Transition

Khamenei’s Funeral

Iranian state media has announced that citizens will bid farewell to the late Supreme Leader in a ceremony at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini prayer ground:

Ceremony to last three days
Final funeral procession to be announced once finalized
Large crowds expected despite ongoing attacks

Symbolic Importance

The funeral serves multiple purposes:

Demonstrating continued popular support for the Islamic Republic
Providing catharsis for supporters
Sending message of resilience to enemies
Setting stage for succession announcement

The Challenge of Wartime Succession

Security Concerns

The ongoing conflict creates unprecedented challenges:

Physical security: Any announced successor becomes an immediate target
Meeting security: Assembly members face risks gathering in person
Communication security: Electronic communications may be monitored
Infrastructure damage: Buildings and facilities under attack

Political Pressures

The war creates competing pressures:

Speed: The country needs decisive leadership
Caution: Announcing a successor invites attack
Unity: Factions must present united front
Legitimacy: Selection must be seen as legitimate

Military Considerations

The succession has military implications:

The new leader must command the armed forces
Revolutionary Guard acceptance is essential
War decisions require clear authority
Nuclear policy needs firm direction

What Happens Next?

Expected Timeline

Based on current reports:

Days, not weeks: The announcement is expected within days
Voice of Emirates reported succession expected within two days
Leadership council continues to govern until announcement

Announcement Format

When the announcement comes, it will likely include:

Formal declaration by the Assembly of Experts
Introduction of the new leader (or council)
Constitutional validation by Guardian Council
Public ceremony and address

Potential Outcomes

Scenario 1: Mojtaba Khamenei

Quick announcement
Continuity with father’s policies
Strong IRGC support
US-Israeli condemnation

Scenario 2: Consensus Figure

Broader acceptance
Potential for policy adjustments
Still faces foreign opposition
Could improve domestic legitimacy

Scenario 3: Collective Leadership

Novel constitutional arrangement
Power-sharing among factions
Slower decision-making
Could complicate foreign targeting

Conclusion

The selection of Iran’s next supreme leader represents one of the most consequential leadership transitions in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history. That it is occurring under sustained military attack from the United States and Israel adds unprecedented complexity to an already delicate process.

The reported majority consensus suggests that Iran’s elite is coalescing around a successor, though wartime obstacles and procedural disagreements have delayed the formal announcement. Whether the choice is Mojtaba Khamenei, a consensus figure like Hassan Rouhani or Sadeq Amoli Larijani, or a collective leadership council, the decision will shape Iran’s future for decades.

The international community—and particularly the United States and Israel—is watching closely. Trump’s insistence on a role in choosing Iran’s leader and Israel’s threats against any successor create an inherently adversarial context for the transition.

For Iran, the succession is not merely a political matter but an existential one. The survival of the Islamic Republic system may depend on selecting a leader who can maintain domestic support, command the armed forces, navigate international pressure, and guide the country through a war that shows no signs of ending.

As the Assembly of Experts works to complete its historic task, the world waits to learn who will emerge as the next Supreme Leader of Iran—and what that choice will mean for the future of the Middle East and beyond.

Sources

ANI News — “Majority consensus reached over Khamenei’s successor: Iran’s news agency reports” — Source
Reuters — “Majority consensus reached on Iran’s next supreme leader, Mehr news reports” — Source
Al Jazeera — “Iran’s succession question: Rouhani’s name resurfaces amid leadership void” — Source
Reuters — “Exclusive: Trump tells Reuters US must have a role in choosing Iran’s next leader” — Source
Al Arabiya English — “Who could replace Khamenei? Iran weighs possible successors after his death” — Source
Wikipedia — “2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election” — Source