Strait of Hormuz at a Crossroads: Pakistan and Qatar Race to Broker a US-Iran Deal
As the three-month-old US-Iran war enters a critical diplomatic phase, Pakistan and Qatar are scrambling to broker a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint carrying a fifth of global energy supplies.
The World’s Most Dangerous Chokepoint
For nearly three months, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies flow — has been largely shut down. The closure has sent oil prices soaring and reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
Now, diplomacy is reaching a climax.
On Friday, May 22, two major developments signaled that negotiations between the United States and Iran may be approaching a turning point — or a breaking point.
Pakistan Takes the Lead
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran as part of an intensifying mediation effort. Pakistan’s interior minister, Mohsen Naqvi, met Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi for the second time in two days. Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is scheduled to travel to Beijing on Saturday — raising speculation that China may be brought in as a guarantor of any deal.
Pakistan has floated a proposal for joint control of the strait under UN auspices, an idea that would neutralize Iran’s unilateral claims while giving Tehran a face-saving role in the waterway’s management.
Qatar Joins the Fray
Qatar, long regarded as one of the Middle East’s most skilled mediators, has rushed a team of its own mediators to Tehran. Until now, Qatar had not been directly involved in the US-Iran negotiations, leaving that role first to Oman and then to Pakistan.
The Qatari gambit suggests the two-track mediation is now converging. The proposed framework: sign a memorandum of understanding on the strait first, leading to 30 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear programme — effectively deferring the thorniest issues to a later date.
What Iran Wants
Iran’s demands are sweeping. Tehran is seeking:
- A permanent cessation of hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon
- Phased lifting of US sanctions
- Unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad
- Compensation for damage caused by US-Israeli military operations
- Commitments against future use of force
Iran has also established a Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) that would impose tolls on commercial shipping and direct vessels through specific waterways within its territorial waters. The US has flatly rejected any tolling arrangement.
What the US Will Not Accept
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Sweden, was blunt: “Iran is trying to create a tolling system. There is not a country in the world that should accept that.”
Rubio acknowledged “a little progress” but reiterated that the US would not allow Iran to control an international waterway. He also expressed frustration at Europe’s reluctance to do more to keep the strait open.
Meanwhile, US media reports suggest the administration is weighing new military strikes on Iran, though no final decision has been made. President Trump canceled plans to attend his son’s wedding this weekend, citing “circumstances pertaining to government.”
The Gulf States Push Back
Five Gulf nations — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have written to the International Maritime Authority, urging commercial ships not to cooperate with Iran’s PGSA. The letter warns that Iran’s proposed route is “an attempt to control traffic through the strait by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters, which can be exploited for monetary gain.”
Oman, notably, did not sign the letter. Under Iran’s proposal, Oman would administer the south side of the strait — but Muscat remains wary of Tehran’s intentions.
The Nuclear Question Looms
Iran has insisted that nuclear discussions — including the fate of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — be deferred while the focus remains on ending the war. Iran says it will downblend the stockpile domestically, rejecting Russia’s offer to receive it. Trump has demanded the material be handed over, saying: “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it.”
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei dismissed nuclear speculation as “merely media speculation and lack credibility.”
What’s at Stake
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional concern. With global oil markets already reeling from months of disruption, the outcome of these negotiations will ripple through every economy on Earth. Analysts note that much of what Washington says publicly must be filtered through its need to push oil prices down — adding a layer of theater to an already complex diplomatic dance.
As Pakistan’s mediators sit with Tehran and Qatar’s envoys follow close behind, the world watches. The next 72 hours could determine whether the strait reopens — or the conflict escalates to an entirely new level.