Iran-Israel Conflict Impact on Indonesia — A Military Perspective on Drones, Missiles, and Regional Security

Introduction

The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has captured global attention, but for Indonesia— Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation—the implications are particularly complex. From military capabilities analysis to economic impacts and diplomatic positioning, the Iran-Israel war presents both challenges and strategic considerations for Jakarta.

As Iranian drones and missiles strike targets across the Middle East in retaliation for the US-Israel operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Indonesia must navigate a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape while protecting its national interests and citizens abroad.

The Military Dimension: Drones vs. Missiles

Iran’s Retaliation Arsenal

Iran’s military response has demonstrated significant capabilities in both drone and missile warfare:

Drones (UAVs)

Iran has deployed Shahed-series loitering munitions and reconnaissance drones
Swarms of drones have targeted US military bases and Israeli infrastructure
Drones provide cost-effective strike capability with plausible deniability
Kuwait reported successfully intercepting enemy drones using air defense systems

Ballistic Missiles

Iran launched approximately 150 ballistic missiles toward Israel
Missile strikes have hit US bases in Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
The US embassy in Riyadh was struck by two drones, causing fire and minor damage
Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted many missiles, but some penetrated defenses

Asymmetric Warfare Implications

From a military perspective, Iran’s approach demonstrates:

Cost asymmetry: Drones cost thousands of dollars; interception systems cost millions
Saturation tactics: Overwhelming air defenses through volume attacks
Geographic reach: Iran can project power across the entire Middle East
Proxy networks: Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen expand the conflict’s scope

For Indonesia, which operates its own drone programs and maintains air defense systems, the conflict offers lessons about modern asymmetric warfare and the challenges of defending against low-cost, high-volume attacks.

Nuclear Threats and Implications

The Nuclear Question

The US-Israel operation was justified as necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, experts note the irony:

Israel’s nuclear arsenal: Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons but has never officially acknowledged them
Iran’s NPT status: Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); Israel is not
IAEA findings: Neither US intelligence nor the UN nuclear watchdog found evidence Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons

UGM (Universitas Gadjah Mada) experts highlighted this contradiction, noting that Israel’s attacks were conducted under the pretext of Iran violating the NPT, while Israel itself refuses to join the treaty.

Regional Nuclear Risks

The conflict raises concerns about nuclear escalation:

If Iran feels existentially threatened, it may accelerate any nuclear weapons program
Israel’s nuclear arsenal could be brought into play if facing existential threats
Other regional powers might pursue nuclear capabilities in response to instability

For Indonesia, which supports nuclear disarmament and peaceful nuclear technology, the conflict underscores the risks of nuclear proliferation and the importance of international non-proliferation frameworks.

Economic Impact on Indonesia

Oil Price Shocks

CNBC Indonesia identified rising global oil prices as one of the most immediate impacts of the Iran conflict:

Strait of Hormuz vulnerability: Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this chokepoint
Price volatility: Oil prices have surged amid supply disruption concerns
Indonesia’s position: As a net oil importer, Indonesia is vulnerable to price increases

The Indonesian government has noted that sustained high oil prices could:

Increase fuel subsidies (burdening the state budget)
Drive inflation across transportation and manufacturing sectors
Pressure the rupiah exchange rate

Financial Market Instability

The conflict has triggered global financial market volatility:

Stock market fluctuations: Investors fleeing to safe-haven assets
Currency pressures: Emerging market currencies, including the rupiah, face depreciation risks
Capital outflows: Foreign investors may withdraw funds from risky markets

The Indonesian Cabinet Secretariat (Setkab) has analyzed strategies for managing financial market shocks, including coordination between Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance.

Trade Disruptions

Indonesia’s trade relationships could be affected:

Middle East exports: Indonesia exports palm oil, rubber, and other commodities to the region
Import dependencies: Indonesia imports oil and gas from Middle Eastern suppliers
Shipping routes: Conflict could disrupt maritime traffic through critical waterways

Indonesian Government Response

Diplomatic Positioning

Indonesia has called for de-escalation and peaceful resolution:

President Prabowo’s offer: Indonesia’s president offered to fly to Tehran to mediate between Iran and Israel/US
UN engagement: Indonesia has urged the UN Security Council to function effectively as guardian of international order
Condemnation of attacks: Indonesia has condemned both the US-Israel strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on Gulf states

This balanced approach reflects Indonesia’s commitment to:

National sovereignty and territorial integrity
Peaceful resolution of conflicts
International law and the UN charter
Protection of Indonesian citizens abroad

Citizen Protection

The Indonesian government has taken steps to protect its citizens:

Evacuation planning: Embassy staff and Indonesian citizens in conflict zones are being monitored
Travel advisories: Warnings issued for travel to Middle Eastern countries
Coordination with host governments: Working with Gulf states to ensure Indonesian worker safety

Indonesia has millions of migrant workers in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, and other Gulf countries. Their safety is a primary government concern.

Regional Security Implications

Southeast Asian Spillover

While the conflict is centered in the Middle East, Southeast Asia could face spillover effects:

Radicalization risks: The Cabinet Secretariat analysis noted that the conflict could “create reasons for resurgence of radicalism and extremism”
Terrorist networks: Regional terrorist groups could exploit anger over the conflict
Social media influence: Online narratives could inflame tensions in Indonesia

PBNU (Nahdlatul Ulama’s Executive Board) has expressed similar concerns, with Chairman KH Yahya Cholil Staquf warning that the brutal attacks could trigger uncontrolled global conflict and create fertile ground for radicalization.

Indonesia’s Strategic Position

Indonesia occupies a unique position:

Non-aligned stance: Indonesia maintains relations with all major powers
Muslim-majority nation: Indonesia has cultural and religious ties to the Muslim world
Regional leadership: Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN
Global forum role: Indonesia participates in G20 and other international bodies

This positioning gives Indonesia potential to play a mediating role, as demonstrated by President Prabowo’s offer to facilitate dialogue.

Military Lessons for Indonesia

Air Defense Capabilities

Iran’s drone and missile attacks highlight the importance of:

Layered air defense: Multiple interception systems for different threat types
Early warning systems: Detecting incoming threats at maximum range
Electronic warfare: Jamming drone guidance systems and communications

Indonesia has been modernizing its air defense capabilities, including purchases of advanced radar and missile systems. The Iran conflict demonstrates the necessity of such investments.

Asymmetric Threat Response

Indonesia faces its own asymmetric threats:

Papua insurgency: Ongoing separatist movement in eastern Indonesia
Terrorism: Historical threats from Islamic extremist groups
Maritime security: Piracy and illegal fishing in Indonesian waters

Lessons from Iran’s drone tactics could inform Indonesian counter-terrorism and internal security strategies.

Cyber Warfare

Modern conflicts include cyber dimensions:

Critical infrastructure attacks: Power grids, communications, financial systems
Disinformation campaigns: Social media manipulation and propaganda
Intelligence operations: Espionage and data theft

Indonesia has experienced cyber attacks and must strengthen its cyber defenses as part of broader national security preparedness.

PBNU’s Response

Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia’s largest Islamic organization, has taken a nuanced position:

Condemnation of All Parties

PBNU Chairman KH Yahya Cholil Staquf:

Condemned US-Israel attacks: Called them “brutal actions” that damage international order
Expressed condolences: For the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei
Also regretted Iran’s response: Attacking various countries without acceptable reasons

Call for Diplomacy

PBNU has urged:

Indonesia’s active role: Use Indonesia’s position to urge de-escalation
UN effectiveness: Restore international consensus and order
Peaceful resolution: Pursue diplomacy rather than military solutions

Qunut Nazilah

PBNU instructed all Nahdliyin (NU members) to read Qunut Nazilah in every prayer—a special prayer recited during times of crisis—reflecting the seriousness with which the organization views the global situation.

Future Outlook

Short-term Projections

In the coming weeks and months:

Continued volatility: Oil prices and financial markets will remain unstable
Diplomatic efforts: Indonesia may pursue mediation initiatives
Citizen protection: Government will focus on safety of Indonesians abroad

Long-term Implications

Over the longer term:

Energy transition: Indonesia may accelerate renewable energy development to reduce oil dependence
Defense modernization: Increased investment in air defense and asymmetric warfare capabilities
Regional cooperation: Enhanced ASEAN coordination on security challenges

Risk Scenarios

Several scenarios could unfold:

Best case: International diplomatic efforts succeed in brokering ceasefire; conflict de-escalates without major spillover to Indonesia.

Moderate case: Conflict continues at current levels; Indonesia manages economic impacts through policy responses; some social tensions but no major instability.

Worst case: Conflict expands to involve more countries; major oil supply disruptions; significant financial market crashes; radicalization increases in Indonesia; terrorist attacks occur.

Conclusion

The Iran-Israel conflict represents one of the most serious geopolitical crises of recent decades, with implications that extend far beyond the Middle East. For Indonesia, the conflict presents challenges across multiple dimensions: economic, security, diplomatic, and social.

From a military perspective, the conflict offers lessons about modern warfare—particularly the growing importance of drones and missiles in asymmetric conflicts. For policymakers, it highlights the interconnectedness of global systems and the vulnerability of import-dependent economies to supply shocks.

Indonesia’s response—calling for de-escalation while offering to mediate—reflects its commitment to peaceful conflict resolution and its recognition that the conflict’s impacts will be felt globally. The government’s focus on citizen protection and economic stabilization is appropriate given the uncertainty ahead.

As the situation evolves, Indonesia must remain vigilant, adaptable, and engaged. The conflict’s outcome will shape the international order for years to come, and Indonesia’s voice—representing the world’s largest Muslim population and a major emerging economy—matters in the global conversation about how to resolve it.

Sources

CNBC Indonesia — “Perang Iran, Ini 4 Dampak Mengerikan yang Bisa Guncang RI & Dunia” — Source
UGM — “Konflik Iran dan Israel, Pakar UGM Soroti Potensi Perang Global” — Source
Sekretariat Kabinet Republik Indonesia — “Menghadapi Dampak Konflik Iran-Israel: Strategi dan Implikasi bagi Indonesia” — Source
IDNFinancials — “Konflik Iran meluas, Israel membalas serangan rudal Hezbollah” — Source
Tribunnews/Serambinews — “Perang AS-Israel vs Iran Memanas: Ini Penyebab, Dampak, dan Perkiraan Lamanya Konflik” — Source
NU Online Lampung — “Ketum PBNU Kecam Serangan AS-Israel atas Iran, Dorong Peran Aktif Indonesia” — Source
KOMPAS TV — “Dampak Perang AS-Israel Vs Iran: Dubes RI Untuk UAE Siaga” — Source