Panic Buying Hits Indonesia as Iran Conflict Sparks Fuel Shortage Fears — Will 20-Day Reserves Be Enough?

Introduction

Long queues have formed at gas stations across Indonesia as residents rush to stock up on fuel amid fears that the US-Iran conflict could disrupt global oil supplies. From Banda Aceh in the far west to cities across the archipelago, worried citizens are filling jerry cans and topping off tanks, creating scenes reminiscent of previous fuel crises.

The panic buying phenomenon has spread rapidly since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for 20% of global oil shipments—has amplified fears of supply disruptions worldwide.

Panic Buying Spreads Across Indonesia

Banda Aceh: Ground Zero for Fuel Anxiety

In Banda Aceh, residents began queuing at gas stations as early as 10:00 AM local time on Thursday, March 5, 2026. According to reports from Kompas.com, one resident, Saiful Kamar, admitted to joining the queue after seeing others do the same.

“Our culture is often to follow what others do. If there’s a queue, others follow. If we don’t join, we’re afraid the fuel will run out, even though Pertamina’s stock is actually safe,” Saiful said, as quoted by Antara.

Another resident cited trauma from previous disasters, including the devastating floods that hit Aceh, as motivation for stockpiling fuel.

“Maybe people are panicking because of the disaster experience. So when they see this situation, they immediately anticipate it,” the resident explained.

Jakarta and Other Major Cities

Similar scenes have been reported in Jakarta and other major Indonesian cities, though the intensity has varied. Gas station workers report significantly higher traffic than usual, with some stations operating near capacity throughout the day.

Maujul Bahri, a gas station cleaner in Banda Aceh, reported that vehicle queues began crowding the station from 10:00 AM local time.

Government Response: “Don’t Panic Buy”

ESDM Ministry Appeal

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has appealed to the public to remain calm and avoid panic buying.

Dwi Anggia, spokesperson for the ESDM Ministry, warned that panic buying could actually cause the very shortages people fear:

“We urge the public to remain calm, not to engage in panic buying, not to hoard fuel, which could actually cause shortages,” Anggia said, as quoted by Antara.

The ministry emphasized that national fuel stocks are confirmed to be safe and distribution to various regions continues smoothly ahead of Lebaran 2026 (Eid al-Fitr).

Minister Bahlil’s Assurance

ESDM Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has repeatedly assured the public that Indonesia’s fuel supply remains secure despite the Middle East conflict.

“Our fuel stock is still sufficient for 20 days. Even though it sounds short, this stock is in accordance with Indonesia’s maximum storage capacity, so the availability of fuel in Indonesia is confirmed to be safe,” Bahlil stated.

The minister explained that Indonesia’s storage capacity has historically been limited to around 25 days, and the current 20-23 day reserve is within the normal operational range.

Supply Diversification Strategy

Bahlil also revealed that the government has already begun diversifying fuel supply sources away from the Middle East:

“We import crude oil from the Middle East—about 20-25%. But I’ve already found replacements. With Pertamina, we’ve switched from the Middle East to America, Nigeria, and Brazil.”

For refined gasoline (bensin), Bahlil noted that Indonesia does not import from the Middle East at all:

“Gasoline is not imported from the Middle East, nor from America or Africa. Our gasoline imports come from Singapore and Malaysia, and partly from our domestic refineries.”

Why People Are Panicking

Strait of Hormuz Closure

The primary driver of anxiety is Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil supplies pass. While Indonesia imports relatively little oil directly through this route, the global nature of oil markets means any disruption affects prices and availability worldwide.

Global Panic Buying Trend

Indonesia is not alone in experiencing fuel panic buying. Similar scenes have been reported in multiple countries:

South Korea:

Gas prices hit 29-month highs
Seoul gas stations reported queues of more than 20 additional vehicles daily since the conflict began
Won currency hit 17-year lows against the dollar

Australia:

Thousands of drivers queued at gas stations across Perth
Government warned fuel companies against price gouging
Over 210 gas stations in Queensland raised prices to 219.9 cents per liter

United Kingdom:

Queues of up to 90 cars reported in London, Manchester, and Liverpool
Drivers waited over an hour to refuel
Government urged against panic buying despite price increases

Germany:

Long queues reported at gas stations nationwide
Super E10 gasoline prices rose from €1.780 to €1.830 per liter

Sri Lanka:

Long queues despite government assurances of 35-day diesel and 37-day gasoline reserves
Police banned filling jerry cans and warned hoarders of prosecution

Media Coverage of Low Reserves

Previous media coverage highlighting Indonesia’s relatively low fuel reserves (20 days compared to Japan’s 250 days) has also contributed to public anxiety. While the government maintains this is normal operational capacity, the headline-grabbing comparison has fueled fears.

The Risk of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

How Panic Buying Creates Shortages

Economic experts warn that panic buying can create the very shortages people fear through several mechanisms:

1. Accelerated Depletion: When everyone fills up simultaneously instead of following normal consumption patterns, reserves are depleted much faster than anticipated.

2. Distribution Bottlenecks: Gas stations have limited throughput capacity. Sudden spikes in demand create bottlenecks that appear as shortages even when total supply is adequate.

3. Hoarding Effects: When people fill jerry cans and storage containers, they remove fuel from the normal distribution system, creating artificial scarcity.

4. Supply Chain Disruption: Panic buying can overwhelm logistics systems, making it harder to replenish stations that run low.

Expert Warnings

Energy analysts note that Indonesia’s 20-day reserve is a strategic buffer, not a countdown to depletion. Under normal consumption patterns, this reserve is continuously replenished through ongoing imports and domestic production.

However, if panic buying accelerates consumption significantly, even robust supply chains can be temporarily overwhelmed.

What Indonesia Is Doing

Pertamina’s Response

State energy company Pertamina has activated contingency plans:

24-hour operations at 2,074 fuel distribution points (SBPU) during the Lebaran holiday period
Enhanced monitoring of supply levels at gas stations nationwide
Coordination with ESDM Ministry on supply allocation
Public communication campaigns urging calm

Government Price Guarantee

The government has also confirmed that subsidized fuel prices will not increase despite the conflict. This assurance is intended to reduce the incentive for panic buying based on price speculation.

Alternative Supply Routes

For the two Pertamina tankers reportedly stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, the government has initiated diplomatic negotiations to secure their release and safe passage.

Global Context: A Worldwide Energy Crisis

Oil Price Surge

Global oil prices have surged approximately 13% since the conflict began, reflecting market anxiety about supply disruptions. While Indonesia’s fuel prices are subsidized and partially insulated from global price movements, the fiscal impact on the state budget could be significant if high prices persist.

Shipping Disruptions

Iran’s attacks on oil tankers—reportedly burning 10 vessels—have created a climate of fear in global shipping. Insurance rates for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf have skyrocketed, and some shipping companies are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transit times and costs.

Regional Implications

Southeast Asian nations are particularly vulnerable to Middle East supply disruptions, as many rely heavily on oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand have all issued statements monitoring the situation closely.

Lessons from Previous Fuel Crises

2022 Fuel Shortage

Indonesia experienced fuel shortages in 2022 due to a combination of rising global oil prices and distribution challenges. The crisis led to long queues at gas stations and hoarding behavior similar to what is occurring now.

Key lessons from that experience:

Clear, consistent government communication is essential
Panic buying worsens distribution challenges
Subsidy mechanisms can be adjusted to manage demand
Strategic reserves need continuous replenishment

1998 Economic Crisis

During the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, Indonesia experienced severe fuel shortages due to currency depreciation and reduced import capacity. This historical trauma contributes to current anxiety about fuel availability.

What Citizens Should Do

Official Recommendations

The government recommends that citizens:

Follow normal consumption patterns: Fill up when you normally would, not提前
Avoid hoarding: Don’t fill jerry cans or storage containers beyond normal needs
Trust official sources: Rely on government announcements rather than social media rumors
Report price gouging: If gas stations raise prices unreasonably, report to authorities
Consider alternatives: Where possible, use public transportation or carpooling to reduce fuel consumption

Understanding the 20-Day Reserve

The 20-day reserve does not mean Indonesia will run out of fuel in 20 days. Rather:

This is a rolling inventory that is continuously replenished
It represents the strategic buffer for emergencies
Normal imports and domestic production continue alongside this reserve
The government can extend this reserve through supply diversification and demand management

Conclusion

The panic buying of fuel in Indonesia reflects genuine anxiety about global energy security in the face of the US-Iran conflict. While the government’s assurances of adequate supply are credible, the phenomenon of panic buying itself could create temporary local shortages through accelerated depletion and distribution bottlenecks.

The key message from authorities is clear: remain calm, avoid hoarding, and trust that supply chains remain functional. Indonesia’s 20-day strategic reserve, while modest compared to countries like Japan, provides a buffer that can be extended through supply diversification and demand management.

However, the underlying concern about Indonesia’s relatively low fuel storage capacity is valid. As highlighted in recent comparisons with Japan’s 250-day reserve, Indonesia has significant room to improve its strategic petroleum reserve infrastructure. The current crisis may accelerate calls for greater investment in storage capacity and energy security.

For now, the most important thing individual citizens can do is to avoid panic buying. By maintaining normal consumption patterns, Indonesians can help ensure that fuel remains available for everyone who needs it—and prevent the self-fulfilling prophecy of shortage through panic.

Sources

Kompas.com — “Panic Buying BBM Merebak di Tengah Konflik Iran, Bisa Bikin Stok Indonesia Cepat Habis?” — Source
CNN Indonesia — “Panic Buying BBM Melanda Dunia Buntut Perang AS-Israel Vs Iran” — Source
Detik.com — “Bahlil Minta Warga Tak Panic Buying BBM di Tengah Konflik Timur Tengah” — Source
CNBC Indonesia — “Panic Buying BBM Sudah Mulai di Dunia, Ini Buktinya” — Source
Antara News — “Bahlil: Konflik Timur Tengah belum ganggu pasokan BBM Indonesia” — Source
Katadata — “Cadangan Strategis BBM Indonesia, Dari 20 Hari hingga Target 45 Hari” — Source